04/04/2014 09:15 Trend: Positive, SL: 6715.17
04/04/2014 09:20 Caution: Exit Longs near 6734.34-6738.18, SL: 6715.17
04/04/2014 09:25 SL Triggered, Trend: Negative, SL: 6740.68
04/04/2014 09:35 SL Trailed: 6739.61
04/04/2014 09:45 SL Trailed: 6731.02
04/04/2014 09:55 Sell near 6711.38-6707.46, Target: 6672.11, SL: 6731.02
04/04/2014 10:40 SL Trailed: 6728.10
04/04/2014 10:50 Sell near 6708.63-6704.74, Target: 6669.69, SL: 6728.10
04/04/2014 11:00 Caution: Exit Shorts near 6708.63-6704.74, SL: 6728.10
04/04/2014 02:05 SL Trailed: 6716.89
04/04/2014 02:15 Sell near 6697.15-6693.20, Target: 6657.66, SL: 6716.89
04/04/2014 09:20 Caution: Exit Longs near 6734.34-6738.18, SL: 6715.17
04/04/2014 09:25 SL Triggered, Trend: Negative, SL: 6740.68
04/04/2014 09:35 SL Trailed: 6739.61
04/04/2014 09:45 SL Trailed: 6731.02
04/04/2014 09:55 Sell near 6711.38-6707.46, Target: 6672.11, SL: 6731.02
04/04/2014 10:40 SL Trailed: 6728.10
04/04/2014 10:50 Sell near 6708.63-6704.74, Target: 6669.69, SL: 6728.10
04/04/2014 11:00 Caution: Exit Shorts near 6708.63-6704.74, SL: 6728.10
04/04/2014 02:05 SL Trailed: 6716.89
04/04/2014 02:15 Sell near 6697.15-6693.20, Target: 6657.66, SL: 6716.89
Sunilji Good Morning
ReplyDeleteGM Sunil Sir,
ReplyDeleteHope you are doing good.
Hi Sunil, Ham
ReplyDeletetarget for reliance and nifty 6500 put please.
GA Sirji !
ReplyDeleteWhy AC is not working these days?
Good afternoon everyone :)
ReplyDeleteAs said earlier, the main reason for my bearish stance is due to the gaps created earlier near 5700 and 5500 which are likely to get filled sooner or later.
First let me explain you something about gaps, The gaps will often provide support or resistance and after a gap gets filled, the trend-reversal usually happen from that point. For an upward breakaway gap, the lowest point of the second candlestick provides support and a downward breakaway gap provides resistance for a move back up at the highest price in the second candlestick. The breakaway gap generally doesn't fill like the common gap but it will in some cases. It may take some time maybe months or years but it shall get filled [IMO]. Some analysts doesn't agree when some strongly believes in this technique. There is an old saying that the market abhors a vacuum and all gaps will be filled. While this may have some merit for common and exhaustion gaps, holding positions waiting for breakout or runaway gaps to be filled can be devastating to portfolio. Likewise, waiting to get on-board by waiting for prices to fill a gap can cause us to miss the big move. Gaps are technical phenomena that may or may not mean anything and some markets by their nature are predisposed to gapping, while others rarely display gaps.
Once you understand the gaps theory and what they mean, you can profit by correctly assessing them or atleast can save ourselves by hedging the positions or maintaining the strict stop-losses. Gaps are a significant technical development in price action and chart analysis and should not be ignored and candlestick analysis is filled with patterns that rely on gaps to fulfill their objectives...
This may not work for some markets but it worked many times for Indian market.
BOTTOM LINE : If nifty had moved up without creating the gaps near 5700 and 5500, I would be very happy and have supported this bull market 1000%, besides, I keep an eye on world economy which is not up to the mark as of current market valuations and there are many more reasons to support my theory...
Dont forget that earlier, I proved this gap-theory twice during the sharp fall of 900 points from 6200 to 5100 during August 2013 and recently in January, the gap left in between 6268-6137 which is filled immediately within cople of days... This time too I take it as a challenge even if nifty reaches 8000, the final destination point will be 5500 and then a new journey starts for a fresh Bull market by considering this level as huge support zone...
Whatever, this is my personal analysis and so shared my opinion/theory with you guys
BUT
BEFORE THAT, If analyzed using options, as of now, the major support comes near 6700/6600 and on the upside, traders expecting 6900/7000. So, for the long positions if added on dips, positional (1-2 months) SL should be 6485(strong support). Near-time SL must be around 6755/6694(good support)/6648.
Traders are believing nifty wont stay below 6700/6600. Immediate resistance comes near 6753 which is taken out decisively and above this, next super-strong resistance comes at 6900/7000 (high OI that too way below 40 lacs, which means option writers themselves dont know the top of this rally). Lets move along the option writers for this time as we have no clue near these all-time highs..
[As market is making fresh highs, it's difficult to predict the top, hence, the above levels were given BASED ON OPTION WRITING of current month.]
P.S: Markets are highly overbought, hence, hedge your longs with ATM puts.
Good luck to all :)
Will update next month's range in couple of days...!!
Hi
ReplyDeleteSl of 6060 is triggered in our puts, as of now holding puts only on account of hedging purpose...
Reliance broke the strong resistance of 900 and heading towards 1000, sl must be 908.
Hi Pramodh :)..
ReplyDeleteMaybe SR is busy with some personal work but he'll soon be back with a blast !!
Hi HAM !
ReplyDeleteYa just hope all is well at his end....he's never gone for so long.
Yes, he's never been so long and at least he would have updated the AC nifty trades page, in case he's busy with some work..
ReplyDeleteLets hope for the best..
Hellooo SR,
ReplyDeleteHope everything is fine.
Comeback ASAP and share your opinions/ideas with your friends !!!
Sirjeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee plz come back....ab toh aadat si ho gaya hai with AC. :)
ReplyDeleteHi Sunil Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease come back...or let me know how we could get your guidance...
Hi SR & All,
ReplyDeleteSubho Naba Barsha to all of you.
Hi SR I have been a follower of your blog , haven't checked is since a few months and now when i checked it again you are not updating it . Hope all is well with you and you are in best of health .
ReplyDeleteHello HAM,
ReplyDeleteGM..VIX is very high..any indications of sell..nifty
Hello everyone :)
ReplyDeleteHi SR! Hope you are doing good... Guess you are busy in developing a new software or something new product. I wish you All the very best in what ever you do Brother...
If anyone entered positional longs on dips, may book part profits tomorrow near 6830 or after opening and hold the rest with trailing SL of 6747/ 6630 (positional sl for 1 month, earlier I had given 6485 SL in my previous post) and the next target will be 6900 in couple of days.
Super strong resistance @ 6900, if breaks this level, nifty may test psychological mark of 7000 by May month and expecting a correction from that point.
NOTE: The above levels were given based on my personal analysis, so, hedge the positions to be safe even in worst case scenarios..
As Vix is near 35 after breaking the previous resistance of 32.5, be careful while buying options which are highly over-priced (or) dont buy at once instead average slowly on dips. Buying strangles/straddles are too risky in this case, so stay away from these strategies. Just be cautions in options market till vix cools down below 25/20. Vix index usually be low during bull markets, it only rises near strong resistance zones due to rising fear among investors and it indicates that most of the traders are hedging their positions near all-time highs...
Trade safe and Good luck to everyone :)
Hello and GE Rvk,
ReplyDeleteNo wait for a while, still open interest high in 6900 call. Will clarify more after current month's expiry.
Sure..thanks a lot !!!
ReplyDeleteHello Everyone!!
ReplyDeleteAs expected nifty tested 6850 and a new life-time high has been recorded on expiry day, hope you booked part profits here. As of now upside is topped at 6950/7000 for May series and profit booking is likely from this level.. People are expecting 6900/7000 before poll results and preparing for market correction from thereon... On down side nifty may slide up to 6600/6500.
Once again warning regarding May month options which are highly over-priced on account of elections mania. Euphoria is building up with the rise in Vix index above 30 level. People are betting on both sides so are buying strangles/straddles hoping for 300 points move in either direction on results day but the truth is the premiums gonna melt like magma (Rs. 200/- option will become 30 or 40/- on this particular day). Hence, stay away from options till poll results and off-course most of the good news has been discounted all these days and this bull rally is result of this event. I, personally expecting a decent correction after the announcement of election results, lets see...
Will update more in coming month...
Have a nice time and please do vote!!!
Hello HAM,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the Valuable information..I experienced with one of the results day on infy as premiums melt like anything..we will note this point.
Any view on bank nifty as its crossed 13k..
Thank you !!! Have a nice day !!!
Good morning SR and everyone !!!
ReplyDeleteThere are two probabilities in market out there right now....
Either nifty may test 7000 before poll results following with steep correction up to 6600/6500 from thereon or nifty may first correct to 6500 and bounces back to 7000 but overall the range for May month is 6500-7000 (500 points range) and also Vix is above 30 which means this current month series may experience high volatility due to election results euphoria.
BUY if nifty comes below 6600/6550 by keeping positional SL of 6450 for a target of 6900/6950 or SELL above 6950/80 with 7050 as strict SL.
SL are given based on current market condition and were highly unlikely to get triggered.
Stay away from buying options till Vix cools down a bit below 22/20 ... I am currently trading in Nifty futures for time being till options get back to their original values... Shorting options is best choice in current scenario by keeping tight stop-loss as given above (SL is applied only for puts below 6600 and calls from/above 7000. SL of 6450 is for shorting puts below 6600 and SL of 7050 is for shorting calls from 7000-7500).
Good luck :)
Good morning Rvk...
ReplyDeleteNo perfect idea as of now but will update more after election results...
BN moves along with nifty, just follow the above levels...
U r always welcome and u too have a great day!!
Hi ham
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for valuable information. keep sharing your thoughts.
Sorry all, I've had some serious medical issues in family and as such spending most of the time in hospital. I may not be available for another few days. Sorry once again for all the inconvenience caused.
ReplyDeleteWe pray for the speedy recovery of ur family member Sir. Tt was indeed good to see your post after a long time. Pls take good care of you n your family.
ReplyDeleteGood to see here after soooo long sirji.Hope everything gets well soon at ur end.If you need any help in dhanbad i can help as some very good doctors are really close to me there.Just let me know.
ReplyDeleteHi sunil,ham
ReplyDeleteFeeling good after seeing your message sunil. We pray for your family. come back soon
Hello SR :)
ReplyDeleteGood to see you back. I am so sorry to hear and I know your family member will get better soon. Our best wishes for a speedy recovery and please dont be sorry as I can only imagine what you're going on through. Our prayers are always with you.
You helped so many people till now and yet doing the same which will not go in vain, Keep faith in God, everything is gonna be alright. Take care Brother...!!
Thank you Pramod :)
ReplyDeleteHello everyone,
ReplyDeleteAs of now, Resistance getting stronger at 6800 level. Till results, nifty likely to fluctuate near 6800 mark (If market fall to 6700/6650, it will bounce back to 6800 and if market rises 6850/6900, correction takes place and again nifty will re-test 6800 level). This is the scenario till results day after the results, if BJP wins with majority of seats and forms the govt. then nifty may rise 5% and simultaneously, infra, oil and power stocks will zoom and vice-versa if it fails to form the government due to lack of majority of seats, immediately nifty will experience 7-10% drop. If BJP forms Govt. this bull rally may continue for another 1-2 years following with a sharp decline later on. So it is better to concentrate on intra-day basis till results day without taking much risk by holding overnight positions..
NOTE: Market may or may not react if BJP wins as most of the good news has been discounted recently but market will surely fall like anything if none gets majority of seats and failed to form Govt.
Unstable govt = Free fall in market below 6000 mark.
Good luck everyone and have a great weekend :)
Good evening Vishal :)
ReplyDeleteNice to see your message Sunil sir , Bhagwan se yahi prarthana ki wo aapkey or appakey parivar ki raksha karey....
ReplyDeleteSir , If you any medical help in Ranchi or Bokaro plz let me know.
(my # 99866-49696)
Hello SR,
ReplyDeleteHope you are doing good !!
I am so sorry to hear that..Hope everything will be fine soon...
Good afternoon everyone :)
ReplyDeleteRemember the below post when I said nifty will fluctuate near 6800 levels and said to buy if nifty falls to 7000/6500 and sell nifty if it rise to 6900/7000.
As expected nifty bounced back to 6800 level and likely to test 6850/6900.
Be cautious before election results and do hedge your nifty futures with puts.
Last but not least is do not forget my old targets of 5680/5444 which is on cards anytime. If market slips after results, then nifty will definitely test 5700 once. Upside is topped at 6900/7000.
Again suggesting to short puts below 5500 and calls above 7100/7200 with SL of 6450 for writing puts and 7050 for writing calls. Dont worry, I will guide you guys regarding shorting options every month.
Good luck everyone :)
Hello SR,
ReplyDeleteHow are you ?
Hope your family member is getting better now. My best wishes for his/her speedy recovery and you too take care of yourselves. Everything is gonna be alright... :) Bye for now !!
Thanks ham for you valuable suggestion....takecare....good luck....bye.....:)
ReplyDeleteThanks HAM for all the useful information. what is your view on sun pharma?what is the next nifty target after exit polls. Do market fall from 7100 to 6000? please help sirji.
ReplyDeleteHello Everyone...
ReplyDeleteOptions started loosing premiums as expected. As of now, calls from/above 7500 and puts below 6500 can be shorted by keeping 7550 as SL for calls and 6450 as SL for puts. Still both 6500pe+7500ce are holding premium of 117/-, its all yours if executed with strict SL (pair is must in shorting options). These are far OTM options which are safe to exercise.
If my guessing goes right, by coming Monday, Vix index plunges to 25 or below 20 where you can find fair value of all the option prices. Before that short far OTM calls and puts on rise with strict SL maintaining just above 1% above/below the strike price.
Coming to nifty, as of now, strong resistance comes at 7200 and above that next level to watch is 7500 (very unlikely to break super-strong resistance of 7200) but I am expecting 6800/6900 in couple of days and below that nifty may slips further to 6500. At the current all-time highs no one is sure about the market top including me but one thing, whoever holding long positions in futures and stocks, I would sincerely suggest to book profits on any possible bounce and don't wait for the round-figured targets. From my 14 years of stock-market experience, what I've noticed is that the market crash happened from all-time highs and whatever the crashes happened in history, all occurred from fresh highs...
Yes, I know that, the dumbest question in investing is probably, “what is the market is going to do?” It is unknowable, and yet everyone has an opinion and position on the subject. People back their opinion with facts about the economy, corporate activities such as earnings, new whizz products and demographic trends. They have pretty much a 50-50 probability of being correct.
Hence, consider this post as my view/opinion and all the above levels are based on my personal analysis from my point of view. Moreover, believe less in those media prognosticators who get a big prediction right, usually about a huge rally/crash and quickly become heroes and legendary forecasters but they are also usually never right again over the course of their career.
I think it will be more appropriate to name MODI MARKET EXUBERANCE than a bull market rally and all these gains are only on one hope that, India will develop more if BJP forms a government under Modi's leadership. If we keep this elections drama aside, the fair valuations of nifty comes around 5500 (7100-5500)=1600 points plunge is on the way IMHO....
The bottom line is, it's best to safe-guard your capital than investing near market highs in greed and hastiness. Just protect your money from market forces and I am sure market will give a chance to each and everyone.
Good luck :)
Good evening.
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure is sharing thoughts...
First nifty shall test 6800 and below that 6500, if broken this strong support then you will see 6000. Firstly, lets concentrate on 6800, which will act as deciding point.
Wait till next week and buy Sun pharma only on dips in between 589-572 with SL of 548, positionally...
Good evening..
ReplyDeleteAlways welcome :) U too take care and have a great time ahead!!
Hello HAM,
ReplyDeleteGood Morning...Thanks a lot for the valuable information and guidance.
Can we expect VIX again near 37 upto friday(16th may)..
Thanks a lot !!! Have a nice day !!!
Good evening Rvk :)
ReplyDeleteAlways welcome....
Max upside is topped at 40/42, very unlikely to move beyond these figures. May short far OTM calls and puts of any index or stock on any possible bounce by keeping SL above or below 1 or 2% from strike price.
Vix be back to pavilion (below 20) by Friday or Monday, till then it may rise further more due to fear/excitement of traders.. Just a political drama on stock-market, nothing more...
Thank U and U too have a great time ahead!!
Hi sir
ReplyDeleteDoes market fall from monday.what is the reaction of market to bjp winning. When will nifty future come to 6800.
Thanks
Srikanth
Hello Srikanth,
ReplyDeleteAs said earlier, the super-strong resistance comes at 7200. Though nifty made a high of 7564 on Friday, it slipped to7131 and closed at 7203, just above the resistance point. Above 7250(closing basis), next resistance point comes at 7400. Below 7187, its 7118/7012. For current month series, very strong support comes near 7000.
Good morning everyone :)
ReplyDeleteAs expected, vix index fell 34% in single day. Those who shorted options may book profit in all the puts and hold the calls(above 7500 strike-price) with SL of 7550 (closing basis). This week, vix likely to fall below 20/18 mark.
Above 7250(closing basis), next resistance point comes at 7400. Below 7187, its 7118/7012. For current month series, very strong support comes near 7000.
This is it for the May month, see you all soon!!
Good Morning everyone :)
ReplyDeleteThose who shorted calls may book profit in opening as support getting stronger at 7000/7100. Above 7200, next level to watch is 7400 [On 13th May, (7500call+6500put) strangle was at 172, currently at 24 as of Monday ] . For May series, nifty will be in range of 7000-7400, best support @ 7000.
Good afternoon :)
ReplyDeleteSupport getting stronger @ 7200 with resistance building at 7400 and above that, its 7500. So one may book profits at/above 6400.
If i say support or resistance, that would be the SL for longs and shorts (maintain 50 points lower/higher in case of positional holdings). Hence for May series, nifty may not slip below 7200 and may not move above 7500. The expiry must be in between 6400 and 6500..... IMO
Will update more about Jun series in coming days and will guide in shorting options too for Jun series. As of now, based on current data, calls above 7700 and puts below 7000 can be shorted with SL of 7750 and 6950 respectively...
Good luck to everyone :)
Hello everyone..
ReplyDeleteBook profit in longs near 7480 as huge resistance is building up near 7500. Very unlikely to move beyond it for May month series.... Best support at 7300.
As said earlier, calls above 7700 and puts below 7000 can be shorted with SL of 7750/70 and 6950. Maintain the strict SL... Good luck !!
ReplyDeleteSee y'll next week, little busy with some stuff...
Wow, surprised to see this steep fall from 7500--7275. Lucky those who booked profits near day highs :) Currently support @ 7300 (as said earlier), below that its 7100. Stay cautious...!!
ReplyDeleteHi Ham. Your levels are awesome. 7100 can be seen next week?
ReplyDeleteI sold june 6900 put at 27 and 7500 call at 142. I am in good profit now book or hold.
Thanks so much sir.
Waiting for you Sunil sir. When do you get back to autochannels? I hope you are fine.
ReplyDeleteHello Vishal,
ReplyDeleteY'r always welcome....
Yes, book profit in your short strangle (7500call+6900put) at cmp as u made good profit. If Vix peaks above 20/22 mark, short the deep OTM options again with same SL..
Best support at 7203, below that 7106/7012. Good resistance at 7325/7367.
NOTE: There are two gaps left in between 7203-7123 and 7109-7014. Gaps usually gets filled during correction time, so u may use this clue during intra-trades. For eg, If nifty breaks 7203, it will not stop falling till 7123 just like u noticed it happening on Friday and it does repeats again if 7109 is broken, straight heads to 7014. Nifty to range in between 7400-6900 for the entire June month.
Good luck!!
hi where is sunil sir. why is sudden silence. can anyone tell?
ReplyDeleteThanks ham....i hope all is well.....:)
ReplyDeleteHello SR and everyone...
ReplyDeleteHope you all are doing fine !!
May not able to update about market for couple of weeks as my Grandmother passed away due to lung cancer after struggling for more than 2 years, I will be out of station for time being..
Before leaving, I want to share some information about market. Nifty is out of our range with best resistance building at 7600/7500, maximum upside may be up to 8000(pre-budget rally) and this level probably be the top of this bull cycle and later on starts the bear market cycle which may range for 2-3 years and am expecting 25-30% correction from all-time highs (my long-term target of 5680/5444 is still ON). Hence, I would suggest you to be cautious at these levels (If you are in profits in any of the long positions, just book them and concentrate on intra-day trading rather holding on to over-night positions as this is sentiment-driven rally, else, it will have an adverse effect on your portfolios). Market rallied only on HOPES which is not sustainable, do not forget this, a small bad news may trigger massive correction... And also, dont forget that this market is driven by FIIs which is not trust-worthy, if they pull the trigger, thats itt!!! Boom....... Market is considered to be healthy if and only if it is driven by domestic investors under favorable economic conditions but in India it's too much.... IMO
Yes, I agree, markets are born to rise but not with support of other countries people... Our Indian stock market is excessively dependent on Foreign Institutional Investors, while retail investor participation is very poor. May God bless us!!
SR, hope your family member has recovered and is doing well. Take care!! See you soon....
Good evening Ravi.
ReplyDeleteNo, not too well on my side... hope you are doing fine.. TC
Thank you for asking :)
what happen..?you are not feeling well.. i pray to god you recover soon...dont worry..
ReplyDeleteHello HAM,
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry about your loss/May she rest in peace.
Thanks for your valuable suggestions/guidance ..
Hello Sirji & Everyone !Why is the action missing on this site?How many days we`ll have to wait for your guidance sir?Hope things have improved at ur end.
ReplyDeleteHi all. Hi Ham. sorry for your loss. rip. one questioon,market correction come after reaching 8000 or before it. Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi Sunil. How is your member health? When are you starting regular guidance service. waiting for your automatic signals.
ReplyDeleteGOOD AFTERNOON SUNIL SIR, HOW ARE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. HOPE THAT EVERYTHING IS RETURNING TO NORMAL. MISS YOUR UPDATES ON MARKET. HOPE TO SEE YOU SOON.
ReplyDeleteHi SR ...I WISH YOU MANY MORE HAPPY RETURNS OF THE DAY....MAY GOD BLESS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY.....HAVE A GREAT DAY....I HOPE ALL IS WELL.....TAKECARE......:)
ReplyDeleteHi SR/HAM !Would you like sharing your views on nifty at these levels...
ReplyDeleteHi Pramod,
ReplyDeleteNifty to be in range of 7950-8150 for September series..
Buy below 8000/7980 with positional SL of 7905 and sell near or above 8150 with 8200 as positional SL. Huge resistance at 8150/8200. Good luck..
Thank you,
ReplyDeleteAs of now the range is 8150-7950 for Sept series. Timing the market is almost impossible, we can only predict the levels but a sharp correction is due.
Hello Rvk
ReplyDeleteThank you rvk.
Sorry for late reply.
Hi HAM !Thanks for sharing ur view.I am short in nifty@7860(last month).Hope will get this lvl by this expiry.
ReplyDeleteGood morning Pramod
ReplyDeleteYes, the range has been extended to 8150-7850 for Sept and 7850 probably would be the bottom for series.
Better hedge with 8000 call as nifty likely to test 8027/8090 again before expiry. Support @ 7878 and very strong support @ 7837/7751 as of now.
All the above levels are valid only for September month..
Thank you Ham !
ReplyDeleteHi HAM. Great prediction for september month welcome back. please share your view on october.
ReplyDeleteThank U Vishal !!
ReplyDeleteNothing much difference in October month range, downside is bit extended to 7827/7790 and the upside limit stays intact.
So, the positional SL for longs must be around 7743 and huge resistance still remains @ 8150/68 with mild resistance around 8080.
Good luck :)
Nifty fluctuated the entire month in our range of 8150-7850, the SLs on the both sides too acted perfectly with good risk-reward ratio..
ReplyDeleteHow you guys are exactly predicting the levels.
ReplyDeleteI want to learn..Please help me out
Hi HAM,where is bottom for the fall? Which is best buy level?
ReplyDeleteHello everyone !!!
ReplyDeleteOctober month's range prediction was historical, nifty hovered in a tight range of 8168-7750 as mentioned a month ago. Hope you guys made profits.
I would suggest you to follow higher time frames like daily/monthly charts rather following 5/15/30mins/1hr (4 or 5 hr chart is good for weekly analysis).
Note:-
FED ended QE which is a bad news for markets globally, hence, am expecting a correction, maybe from 8200/8250 straight down to 7500 in 2014 year. Be cautious at higher levels. Lets see how it goes :)
Good luck!!
Hi HAM !
ReplyDeleteThe day we even start thinking of a market correction it shocks us in a very cruel way.....i m a big time bear in this market(shorted a lot no. of scrips from 8100) but the way it moved on thursday and friday scared the shit out of me.....
Relieved to see your post....it gives some hope !
Thanks for your guidance for a few here....do you have any knowledge of our sirji?really miss him a ton these days :(
Since 1990, there's been a crash/recession for every 6 years, look closely at chart below.......
ReplyDeleteHi HAM !
ReplyDeleteThanks again for your valuable guidance.Will definitely try your hedging strategy for my trades from next month .The risk reward at this point for Nov series is very low at this stage.
Sir let me know where I can learn techniques to trade in stock and predict exact high and low point.
ReplyDeleteHi HAM.
ReplyDeletehow do you predict monthly range so correct. I want to learn please teach me sir. Can i have your fb or watsapp number to chat.thanks
Hello sir,
ReplyDeletewhat happened to you sir, are you all right.
Just ping once
We are missing you the lot.
U are the only genius in market.
Please come soooooooon and help us
Hi HAM. You are real expert. Plz teach me how to read charts easily. What techniques you follow nd how to predict crash. thanks for helping.
ReplyDeleteGood morning and New year greetings to everyone......
ReplyDeleteI am here after 2 month still, Nifty is trading more/less in our given range 8000-8300, couldn’t able to sustain near highs. Coming to 2015, nifty to be in the range of 8000-8800 for couple of months, it shouldn't break 7950/7830 on weekly charts, 8500 is on cards for Jan/Feb month. Seems Nifty may record one more new high in its account before a major fall. This market is not gonna give up too easily, it will test the patience of bears to max. extent. I would suggest to keep an eye on global cues, who knows what happens tomorrow :)
Have you seen a crash in crude oil segment, the bubble finally bursts. Next comes Gold as it is way too over-priced even at these levels, the bull run started from 6k-33k so, 50% retracement point comes around 20k but am expecting 17k over long-term…… IMO
Brief outlook on Global cues for 2015 year:
Lower oil prices get consumers spending and businesses investing. Like we predicted long time ago, a FINANCIAL CRISIS begun in the emerging markets. China has a hard landing, Greece sparks off a fresh phase to the eurozone’s struggle for survival since 2008 and deflation sets in. The Russian economy will go into deep freeze in 2015, even before the dramatic plunge in the rouble, the central bank was predicting a fall in output of 4.5%.
The eurozone recovery failed to get off the ground and mounting a threat of deflation. Neither of those problems of 2008 has gone away, with growth of just 0.2% in the third quarter of 2014 and an annual inflation rate of 0.3. Greece and Spain are already stuck in a deflationary rut and there is concern that a dangerous deflationary spiral will spread to the rest of the region. The fear is that as prices continue to fall, businesses and consumers will delay spending plans as they expect prices to fall further. Due to weak growth, lower oil prices and general lack of inflationary pressures, the ECB’s battle against deflation will continue in 2015 as well. More weak data from the EU will make investors nervy and a failure of QE could trigger outright panic in entire Eurozone. Let’s wait and see how these world economics shapes up in 2015………!
Just sharing my analysis with you guys... See y’ll soon...
Good luck !!
Good to see you back after a long time HAM !This market is really checking the patience of the bears and I guess more is to come next week after ECB starts pumping money through conventional bond buying....It has really become very hard to trade in this market and in particular-intraday.Missing the old days and SR sirji....Think he has given up on this site...
ReplyDeleteThanks for taking some time out for the few here.....
Hi Promod,
ReplyDeleteGood to see you too... Yes, market is quite bullish as FIIs pouring money in to equity by hedging their portfolios with nifty puts.
Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, wants to crank up monetary policy because inflation remains uncomfortably lower than the bank’s goal of almost 2%. The steep fall in oil prices will be a welcome note for the euro-zone economy. A prolonged term of “lower inflation” is bad for the euro area because many of its member states are weighed down by excessive public and private debt. Let's wait and see how ECB reacts to Swiss shock....!!
Yes, I would be happy to see SR on AC again. Let's hope for the best.
Good luck :)
Good morning everyone :)
ReplyDeleteAs expected a weak earlier, nifty hit 8500 and moving towards 8800, more likely to test 8800/9000 in coming days, however trade with caution near all-time highs. Jan month's range to be in between 8500-8750 till expiry.
Thank you!
ReplyDeleteAn update on January month's range:-
ReplyDelete8700-9000.
9000 is on cards........!!!!!
Most welcome...!
ReplyDeleteHello everyone...
ReplyDeleteCheers....... for 9000 ===>> TARGET DONE !!!!!
2015 year is a great opening for us. Exactly as we predicted a week ago(target of 9000), nifty futures made a high, 9029.50 on Friday and witnessed a huge selling pressure from all-time highs which means 9000 has huge resistance barrier which is quite tough to break in near-term.
I visited AC 17 days ago, during the time nifty was trading near 8250/8300, just in 17 days, nifty rallied 700 and the good part is that we predicted all the targets(8500/8800/9000) and cashed out this rally, hope you guys too made some decent profits :)
Coming to downside targets for 2015,
8711/8630/8523/8448/8336 if breaks 8336, be ready for free fall to 8178/8062 (support levels). Market dont fall all of a sudden until some serious bad news pops out globally, it does fall step by step following with a retracement of 40-60% of each fall. Consolidation is more likely in coming days.....
The global system will not reach any major milestones of development in 2015. However, judging from events in the opening weeks of this year, the general global trends that were already evident will become more clearly defined in the coming months... Global financial markets made a series of epic moves in the second half of 2014, toward a sharply lower price of oil, much lower interest rates, and a far stronger dollar, stronger dollar is bad for U.S. multinationals. The appreciation in the dollar and a depreciation of most foreign currencies means that their sales overseas are not worth as much as they used to be in earlier years. The dollar index, measuring its value against six other major currencies, is up 17.7 percent since June 30 2014. Foreign exchange moves will cause the company’s earnings to fall 12 percent for 2015 fiscal year or $1.4 billion after tax.
China will be crucial to the performance of the global economy in 2015 and may soon join the club of countries with a reserve currency. A marked slowdown would affect the rest of the world in two big ways, first, exports to China would weaken which would affect countries such as Germany, which sell the machine tools needed for China’s industrial expansion, and those, such as Australia, that provide China with its raw materials. A sluggish Chinese economy in 2015 will compound a low oil price means the prices of goods leaving China are already falling and that trend will continue. The US and Europe will be flooded with cheap Chinese goods, driving down inflation. In the case of the eurozone, it may result in deflation. Central banks, faced with inflation being well below target, will be cautious about raising interest rates even if their economies are growing at a healthy rate, risking the recreation of the conditions that led to the pre-2007 asset bubbles.
The rest of the global matters were discussed in my earlier posts...
Good luck :)
Hi Ham !It seems you too have become a bull under their pressure.Good Luck :)
ReplyDeleteGood morning Pramod,
ReplyDeleteHahaha....... :) No, Am Bear from heart as this market is driven by FIIs, I will turn out to perma-bull if this tradition changes but coming to trading corner, I take advantage of both the Bull and Bear markets. For instance, I sold my longs near 8960-8990 and shorted immediately at the high point as most of the traders know nifty will definitely retreat from strong psychological levels. 9000 acts as huge resistance point as of now...
As I mentioned couple of times in my previous posts, my long-term target of 6000/5750 stays intact (have my own technical reasons behind these projections), got absolutely no idea regarding time frames as it totally depends on FIIs and global cues. We are already witnessing some bad news coming from global markets, let's wait and see what more is yet to come!!!
Thank u and Good luck to you too :)
Good morning everyone :)
ReplyDelete8500 on cards for February month.....!!!
Thank God !At least there s somebody left in this market to company me. : )
ReplyDeleteHi ham. Brilliant prediction. you are truly unique expert. Kudos.
ReplyDeleteHi!!
ReplyDelete8500 target DONE. Book profits.
CHEERS!!! Target hit in just 7 days(Posted near all-time highs).
Cashed out nearly 450 points :-)
Thanks :)
ReplyDelete:-) Thank you
ReplyDeleteHi HAM !What a great call !!!Congrats !
ReplyDeleteWhats your view of the market till expiry??If you have gone through options data please share..
Thank you Pramod! Just sharing my thoughts with fellow traders...
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned in my earlier post, the downside targets were 8711/8630/8523/8448/8336 among which the three targets(8711/8630/8523) are done successfully as on Monday 9th Feb. Infact, this prediction is meant for first quarter of the 2015 but the impatience bears dragged nifty down to 8523 in no time. 8448 and 8336 are on cards for coming days. A small bounce is expected soon, probably from 8450/8366 to 8632/8685. As Vix is around 22 due to elections effect, option traders must stay out till vix cools down a bit. The range for Feb series lies in between 8366-8715/8800.....
Good luck!!!
Thank you.:-)
ReplyDeleteGood morning everyone!!
ReplyDeleteSupport getting stronger near 8750/8800. If manages to close above 8800 on weekly charts, you may see 8950/9100/9250 in coming days.
8800 is game changing point. Keep an eye on it.
Good luck :)
Ignore my last call.... As Advance-Decline chart indicating a sharp decline probably to 8000/7500.
ReplyDeleteWill update later...
Thanks for the update on time HAM !!!Was planning to go long heavy 1st tlme ever...
ReplyDeleteThanks HAM for your valuable advice !
ReplyDeleteI am too waiting for the vix to cool down a bit to take position in options.On weekly chart nifty has formed a doji.This is a second reversal warning within a month after the shooting star.
let's see if the market gives us the chance we are waiting for :)
On a personal note wanted to ask can we connect through WhatsApp or any other medium...
Hi HAM how are you....thanks for comments....i hope all is well....:)
ReplyDeleteHi Ham. Very accurate predictions for free I am thrilled to see your explainings for coming fall two months before. Keep it up sir. how do you know the fall is coming with help of ad chart when other experts are scratching heads,thanks for saving me. I am learning lot of valuable information with your help. Your 5 targets are hit to 8336. Is 8000 coming in april. Million thanks for seasonal one time valuable updates.
ReplyDeleteRegards