Nifty Trades for 19/02/2013

Feb 19, 2013 9:00 AM
123 Comments
19/02/2013 09:00  Trend: Positive, SL: 5885
19/02/2013 14:55  SL Trailed: 5900
19/02/2013 15:15  SL Trailed: 5915
19/02/2013 15:25  SL Trailed: 5922

 
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  1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:06 AM

    Good Morning SR Sir...

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  2. sHasHiFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:15 AM

    Good Morning Sir..

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  3. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:29 AM

    Good Morning Sunil/Readers

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:30 AM

      Good morning mahy....

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:36 AM

      Good Morning Mahy

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    3. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:41 AM

      Good morning Vibhor,

      How are you doing?

      Delete
    4. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:44 AM

      I m ok.. Thanks for asking... What about you.. And what are your holding now?

      Delete
    5. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:52 AM

      I'm doing fine, thank you.
      Investment wise I'm holding around 10 stocks for long term.
      Trading wise I'm not holding anything now. I'm taking a little break for Trading.
      Will be back soon. :)

      Delete
    6. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:54 AM

      ok..nice..

      Delete
    7. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:02 AM

      hey VS, but still following markets.

      How about ur positions/holdings?

      Delete
    8. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:03 AM

      Hi mahy.. Currently i am holding nothing.. But SBI looks weak today. What is your view on SBI?

      Delete
    9. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:12 AM

      My View,
      SBI had nice support around 2200 and Resistance around 2300 for Feb Series. Consider going long with it on dips (trade in low quantity) and maintain tight stoploss since markets are not bullish.
      Check with Sunil as well on this, he provides better insight.

      Thanks
      Mahy

      Delete
    10. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:16 AM

      ok thanks for giving your view...:)

      Delete
  4. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:37 AM

    Good Morning Krishna

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  5. raviiFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:38 AM

    Hello Sunil,

    Good Morning..

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  6. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:38 AM

    Sir,

    Good Morning.
    Your view on DLF, Cipla & Relinfra intraday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:53 AM

      Hi sundaresh, Good Morning, DLF looks good above 259, can head to 269, can buy on dip with sl below 259. Cipla is in pullback mode, Res 391, Avoid it. Relinfra failed to break above 488, Can re-test 475.

      Delete
  7. pradipFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:42 AM

    HI SUNIL,
    WHAT TO DO TODAY ? lost 10k in last trading? want to recover.any sureshort call for today?

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:54 AM

      Hi pradip, Sorry to hear about your loss. No call as yet. Markets showing almost no momentum as of now.

      Delete
  8. raviiFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:50 AM

    Hello Mahi,

    Good Morning..

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  9. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:01 AM

    Sir,
    Thanks.

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  10. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:10 AM

    Hello sir,
    Whether can we long Nifty keeping TSL 5885?

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:26 AM

      Hi Krishna, Yes, In very small qty.

      Delete
    2. pradipFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:31 AM

      In that case ,6000 ce is a better bUy at CMP?

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:36 AM

      Hi pradip,
      If the market is range bound, the time value will reduce the option prices

      Delete
    4. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:45 AM

      Pradip/All, you need to keep thing few things in account while trading options
      1) time left for expiry
      2) likelihood of moving underlying(Stock/Index) towards strike with in the time period
      3) implied volatility of options (As IV is high, premium will be more and vice versa)
      4) Risk Reward (what if underlying goes against me, how much I loose and what if underlying does not change...)
      5) How long you wanna hold the option if nothing going is happening in our favour
      6) Set StopLoss/Target upfront (based on the underlying levels)
      7) etc

      These things might help us.
      If I missed anything please add and share the knowledge to others.

      Thanks
      Mahy

      Delete
    5. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:57 AM

      Nice tips Mahy :)

      Delete
    6. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:03 AM

      Thanks Sunil :)

      Delete
  11. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:30 AM

    Hey Guys.

    FYI :
    Yesterday NIFTY OI:
    5600PE OI up by 8.4%
    6000CE OI up by 16.5%
    5900CE OI up by 6.7%

    It seems NIFTY indicates we might go south a bit. Please share your thoughts Sunil.

    Thanks
    Mahy

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:39 AM

      Hi Mahy, Max OI in Nifty still on 6000CE and 5900PE indicating range bound movement. Technically, Only after a close below 5885, would indicate a range breakdown.

      Delete
    2. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:50 AM

      Okay Sunil.
      I would not prefer to go long at these moment.
      Still, I'll stick to the idea of "Sell On Rise"
      Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:52 AM

      Most Welcome Mahy.

      Delete
  12. pradipFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:38 AM

    hi sunil, today seems to be a no trade day?

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:43 AM

      Hi Pradip, As momentum is weak, One may buy futures or short puts following strict SL.

      Delete
  13. RobotguyFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:44 AM

    Hey Sunil, How r u man ? Market is so boring. Max OI in 5900 put and 6000 Call. 15-20 mins back I think Max Put had shifted to 5800, So I had shorted nifty, again when I saw OI max OI put had shifted back to 5900 :-(

    Robotguy

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:48 AM

      Hi Robotguy, Nice to see you. Track OI changes only on day-end basis. Intraday changes are caused due to intraday traders and may reflect false picture.

      Delete
    2. RobotguyFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:05 AM

      Yes its true just took a risk. I think till budget market will be like this and on or before budget day market movers will pull up the market and anyway Govt is going to give lot of goodies to FII's. :-)

      Robotguy

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    3. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:08 AM

      Hey Robotguy, good to see you.
      That's Right. :)

      Delete
    4. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:09 AM

      Yes, quite true.

      Delete
  14. pradipFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:45 AM

    hi sunil, ur views on jp associates/ can i buy it?

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:50 AM

      Hi Pradip, Has strong Resistance near 75. Wait for a breakout above 75 to go long on it.

      Delete
  15. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:01 AM

    Sunil,

    Say :
    Underlying Trading at 5900
    5800PE FEB-13@20
    6000CE FEB-13@21
    (Lets ignore commissions of simplicity)
    Premium Collected is 41

    Target would be : Overall Premium let it come to zero :)

    But If markets started to move in either of the direction, then What is the optimal stop-loss for "Short Strangle"?

    Please provide the details how to calculate it?

    Thanks
    Mahy

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:14 AM

      Hi Mahy, optimal sl difficult to calculate. SL should ideally be kept at technical resistance and support levels. However one should keep a drastic SL level which can be 75-100% of total premium for either of the shorts. If total premium is 41, then can keep sl at 30.75/41 for each of the 2 shorts.

      Delete
    2. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:23 AM

      Okay.
      Thank you Sunil for the info.

      I was thinking something like 30%(or certain %) rise in the overall premium, then we square off the trade. (in this example: 53.3 is my stop loss on overall premium with 30% on end-of-day basis)

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:27 AM

      Hi Mahy, Yes that can be done as well, but for that you need to monitor the strangle all the time. Keeping individual SL, one can set sl on exchange and forget about it for the day.

      Delete
    4. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:33 AM

      Yeah, that's valid point if someone wants to exit the trade during the market hours, time consuming though.

      Thank you Sunil!

      Delete
  16. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 11:39 AM

    For Intraday :
    NIFTY is forming higher highs and higher lows from 10:00AM till now.
    Sad Part is : within 10 points range. :(

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  17. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 12:12 PM

    good afternoon sirji
    holding calls with sl of 5885,do you want me to exit from calls immed if nifty breaks below 5885 on 5 min chart?

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  18. sdkbestFebruary 19, 2013 at 12:27 PM

    Hi SR

    Levels of Jindalstel, please

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  19. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 12:33 PM

    vl do it but do you think it is possible to break 5885 level today?
    thank you so much guruji.

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  20. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 12:57 PM

    HELLO SIR
    CAN I BUY INFY 2800 CE

    ReplyDelete
  21. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 1:08 PM

    SIR JI
    ONE THINS MORE I HAVE IDEA FUTURE AT 110 ,
    BUT NOW ITS DOWN TO 107.7
    CAN HOLD OR EXIT AND BOOK LOSS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 1:29 PM

      Exit on any bounce, strong res near 111, Keep SL below 106.5 (spot)

      Delete
  22. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 1:16 PM

    Nifty is struggling to stay above support level, if it fails how much will it go downward?

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 1:30 PM

      Hi Krishna, Downside targets only after breakdown.

      Delete
  23. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 1:42 PM

    sirji, support of 5885 is not broken on 5 min right?
    can we see a strong pull back from here to 5950?

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  24. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 1:52 PM

    many thanks sirji.

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  25. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:25 PM

    at which level should i short l&t and bhel?

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  26. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:32 PM

    Sir,
    DLF had moved upto 269. Can it move further upside.

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:43 PM

      Hi Sundaresh, If holding, book part profits and hold the rest for next target of 274

      Delete
  27. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:39 PM

    Hi SR, Can we buy jaiprakash associates?

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    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:45 PM

      Wait till tomorrow. Can go long on dips only after it gives a close above 75

      Delete
  28. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:45 PM

    Sir, entered Nifty, pl. update the TSL

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  29. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:47 PM

    Sir,
    Thanks a ton.

    ReplyDelete
  30. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:53 PM

    Those who entered Nifty may book part profits near 5921-24 and rest near 5934-37

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  31. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:54 PM

    Sir shall I re-enter 6100 calls (18 lots) .

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  32. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:54 PM

    excellent prediction sirji
    hats-off to you
    many many thanks

    ReplyDelete
  33. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 2:55 PM

    Ok Sir holding 5 lots of 6100 calls , can I continue to hold these .

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  34. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:03 PM

    Book Full profits in Nifty near 5934-37

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  35. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:12 PM

    A close above 5945, will give Nifty a positive outlook for short term ....

    ReplyDelete
  36. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:13 PM

    Sir, bought Nifty Fut@5900, exited @5955
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Mahender Reddy PulakandlaFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:17 PM

      Cool Krishna!

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:17 PM

      Hi Krishna, Great :) My order was placed earlier at 5945. Didn't expect so much rise in the premiums. :)

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:24 PM

      Generally I like to proceed with SL sell/ buy,just 10 points below setting the trig level and updating as per nifty advances. Finally square off at a instance & cancelled the SL sell.

      Delete
    4. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:28 PM

      That's nice, but sometimes it pains if the sl just triggers and the move continues.

      Delete
    5. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:34 PM

      Defensive approach, loss can be minimized but maxm profit can not be assured most of the times

      Delete
    6. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:40 PM

      In fact, I generally judge the premium, and place my order accordingly and modify it if needed. Today also, I was about to modify it when Nifty crossed 5925, but before I could modify, my order was already executed. hehe

      Delete
    7. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:45 PM

      But no issues. I had also shorted few 5800PEs, which gave me great returns as well. :)

      Delete
    8. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:51 PM

      Great,Thank you sir for your continuous support

      Delete
    9. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 4:04 PM

      Always Welcome.

      Delete
  37. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:16 PM

    Sir , Thanks I exited remaining 5 lots of 6100 calls near 5940 . Now shall I re-enter all my 23 lots of 6100 calls , if nifty closes above 5945 .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:19 PM

      Most Welcome.
      No. Have patience. Option IVs are high for calls today. Let it settle down

      Delete
  38. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:27 PM

    Hi SR, Nice call.. What a prediction....!!

    ReplyDelete
  39. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 3:46 PM

    Sir now I am holding no calls , however I am holding 4 lots of 5900 FEB PUT (@ 60 each) and 1 lot of 6000 March PUT (@ 146) . Please advice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 4:24 PM

      Hi Sonu, Exit puts if Nifty trades above 5945 during first hour of trading.

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 4:47 PM

      Ok sir , I will exit PUTs above 5945 (1st hour trading). And can I buy 6100 FEB calls (20 lots) above 5945 (hourly closing) .

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 5:07 PM

      Hi Sonu, No. Never enter options during a rally/decline. Let it settle down and consolidate. That's the time to enter.

      Delete
    4. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 5:28 PM

      Ok Sir , In that case can I enter Nifty Future above 5945 (5 min . closing) .

      Delete
    5. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 5:49 PM

      No. Always wait for trades.

      Read Guide to Successful Trading

      Delete
  40. sbrjFebruary 19, 2013 at 6:25 PM

    sirji,was not online in last moment to book profit in calls today.
    do market open gap up or down tomorrow,at what level should i book profit in calls?
    one more question,what is options IV?
    many thanks for guidance and support

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 7:28 PM

      Hi sbrj, Book profits at opening tomorrow.

      Opening depends on global cues. Europe is trading strong. Lets see how US close today. Likely to be positive.

      IV stands for Implied Volatility. Options tend to factor in hypothetical price movements in advance. And as such gain more premium than its fair value increasing its volatility more than its actual volatility. Its caused due to excessive buying during rallies/declines or before a major event. Options return to their fair value once the euphoria of the rally/decline/event ends.

      It is best to sell options on such rallies/declines as you may not get such premiums again.

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 9:24 PM

      Good evening sir,
      To sell options need a handsome funds(span & exposure)to be deposited to the broker and naturally its difficult to enter more lots, but its safe.On the other hand if we enter buy calls only the premiums are needed and naturally we can go for more lots.
      Whether the rate of increase of option calls(CE) is more than that of the rate of decline of sell options(PE)during rallies?

      Delete
    3. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 10:35 PM

      Good Evening Krishna,

      Margin needed for shorting options is at max equal to that for futures. ATM and OTM options require lesser margin.
      Definitely the gain in CE is more than the decline in PE during rallies.

      But shorting options has many more benefits, few of them are here:
      1. As margin needed is higher, it keeps your risk managements under control.
      2. As it contains risk of unlimited losses, keeps you disciplined to follow SL
      3. Gains are higher, as you gain during sideways, trends, rallies/declines.
      4. Losses are lesser, as you gain decay till your SL is triggered.
      5. Need not hurry to book profits in OTM options.

      Delete
    4. UnknownFebruary 20, 2013 at 8:33 AM

      GM Sir, Noted and thanks a lot

      Delete
  41. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 7:18 PM

    Thanks for your support.....:)

    ReplyDelete
  42. raviiFebruary 19, 2013 at 7:42 PM

    Hello Sunil

    Good evening..

    ReplyDelete
  43. raviiFebruary 19, 2013 at 7:44 PM

    Hello Sunil,

    My bad... i am holding Axis bank since two days..but it is not participated i nthe rally today :)

    But i exited near my buy price...

    can we expect rally tomorrow also ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownFebruary 19, 2013 at 7:53 PM

      Hi ravii, Nifty has strong resistance at 5945. If Nifty manages to sustain above 5945 (hourly closing) can head ahead to 5977 level. Overall Nifty is still range bound within 5885-5977 (closing basis).

      Read: Technical View on Nifty as on 04/02/2013

      Delete

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