27/08/2013 09:15 Trend: Negative, SL: 5513.60
27/08/2013 09:20 SL Trailed: 5450.60
27/08/2013 09:30 Sell near 5415.91-5408.97, Target: 5346.54, SL: 5450.60
27/08/2013 10:35 SL Trailed: 5441.07
27/08/2013 10:40 SL Trailed: 5436.95
27/08/2013 10:45 SL Trailed: 5431.43
27/08/2013 10:50 SL Trailed: 5427.17
27/08/2013 10:55 SL Trailed: 5420.66
27/08/2013 11:05 Sell near 5386.53-5379.70, Target: 5318.27, SL: 5420.66
27/08/2013 11:10 SL Trailed: 5415.43
27/08/2013 11:15 SL Trailed: 5408.80
27/08/2013 11:25 SL Trailed: 5391.31
27/08/2013 11:30 SL Trailed: 5385.08
27/08/2013 11:35 SL Trailed: 5376.44
27/08/2013 11:40 SL Trailed: 5367.59
27/08/2013 12:25 Sell near 5333.34-5326.50, Target: 5264.86, SL: 5367.59
27/08/2013 01:40 SL Trailed: 5359.57
27/08/2013 01:50 SL Trailed: 5358.91
27/08/2013 01:55 SL Trailed: 5352.23
27/08/2013 02:05 SL Trailed: 5342.67
27/08/2013 02:10 SL Trailed: 5334.90
27/08/2013 02:20 Sell near 5300.78-5293.95, Target: 5232.52, SL: 5334.90
27/08/2013 09:20 SL Trailed: 5450.60
27/08/2013 09:30 Sell near 5415.91-5408.97, Target: 5346.54, SL: 5450.60
27/08/2013 10:35 SL Trailed: 5441.07
27/08/2013 10:40 SL Trailed: 5436.95
27/08/2013 10:45 SL Trailed: 5431.43
27/08/2013 10:50 SL Trailed: 5427.17
27/08/2013 10:55 SL Trailed: 5420.66
27/08/2013 11:05 Sell near 5386.53-5379.70, Target: 5318.27, SL: 5420.66
27/08/2013 11:10 SL Trailed: 5415.43
27/08/2013 11:15 SL Trailed: 5408.80
27/08/2013 11:25 SL Trailed: 5391.31
27/08/2013 11:30 SL Trailed: 5385.08
27/08/2013 11:35 SL Trailed: 5376.44
27/08/2013 11:40 SL Trailed: 5367.59
27/08/2013 12:25 Sell near 5333.34-5326.50, Target: 5264.86, SL: 5367.59
27/08/2013 01:40 SL Trailed: 5359.57
27/08/2013 01:50 SL Trailed: 5358.91
27/08/2013 01:55 SL Trailed: 5352.23
27/08/2013 02:05 SL Trailed: 5342.67
27/08/2013 02:10 SL Trailed: 5334.90
27/08/2013 02:20 Sell near 5300.78-5293.95, Target: 5232.52, SL: 5334.90
Hi Good Morning to all...have a good day and handsome gain.....:)
ReplyDelete@Ravichandran Ranganathan Good Morning. Thanks and have a nice day you too. :)
ReplyDeleteGM SR Sir.. :)
ReplyDelete@Shiv Good Morning :)
ReplyDeleteIntraday Pivots for Nifty: 5374.56, 5422.12, 5469.68
ReplyDeleteGOOD MORNING SR.
ReplyDeleteGM, Shall we expect more downside, if breaks 5370?
ReplyDelete@Nagaraj hegde Good Morning
ReplyDelete@Debu Good Morning. Yes very likely.
ReplyDeleteCrude,dollar rupee both are rise, If dollar rupee doesn't recover below 65 today, i expect 5300 by 2maro
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Sunilji
ReplyDelete@sai Good Morning.
ReplyDeleteGood morning SR and AC readers :)
ReplyDeleteSMR index @ 32 indicates still more fear is present in market among investors and Vix index likely to get above 30, i guess as it had made highs in this stage up to 40+ on weekly charts,
ReplyDeleteAnd also my second target of 5200 which I said on the first Friday is not yet..
My first target for USD INR, 65 has been achieved and if breaches 66 mark, then second target is 70-72..
God bless India !!!
Booked profit in Nifty fut @ 5367, Yesterday shorted @ 5455
ReplyDeleteSir shall i re short if nifty breaks 5370?
ReplyDeleteSir heavy weight like HDFC and HDFC BK down badly, supp for these stocks.
ReplyDeleteYes.
ReplyDelete695 and 566 respectively.
ReplyDelete@Crafty Nifty [HAM] Good Morning. :)
ReplyDeleteNifty may test 5300 on intraday basis if remains below 5408/5378 on hourly close. It is unlikely to cross 5500/5600 before AUG expiry..
ReplyDeleteSR - Your view on SBIN...
ReplyDeleteBig BEARS are out in the market after HIBERNATION :)
ReplyDeleteNext support at 1496
ReplyDelete:D
ReplyDeleteGood Morning,,,
ReplyDeleteSir next pivots?
ReplyDeleteNifty missed intraday target of 5300 in just 15 points, made a low of 5315 it seems
ReplyDeleteOops sorry, forgot about it. Below 5374.56, 5327.00, 5279.43
ReplyDeleteSir any chance of 5280 today?
ReplyDeleteYes, If Nifty sustains below 5327
ReplyDeleteEven 5200 is possible if this fall continues and if rupee make a low of 66, intraday high is 65.72
ReplyDeleteYes, seems today register record intarday fall in 5 years
ReplyDeletehi Sunil sir,
ReplyDeleteholding IDFC 85PE..
pls give me target for IDFC downside today
sir Any chance of recovery, shall we exit from positional short? i am waiting for 5300/5280
ReplyDeleteFor positional shorts, keep SL as per AC.
ReplyDeleteCHEERS....
ReplyDeleteTarget of 5300 achieved successfully for intraday :)
Booked another part @ 5295, rest hold with sl 5330 waiting for 5260
ReplyDeleteSir shall i leave last part for 2maro? Global mkt also -ve
ReplyDeleteI just booked profits in puts and shorts and would advice the same to u guys...
ReplyDeleteNice work HAM.. Great...
ReplyDeleteBook near 5280
ReplyDeleteNifty is near major pivot of 5279.43 (book shorts for now), If broken can head down to 5231.87, 5184.31
ReplyDeleteThank you very much vibhor :-)
ReplyDeleteMy second positional target, 5250,5200 is still pending. Waiting for it......
ReplyDeleteSir expiry due in 2 days, any Arbitrage position closing affects nifty?
ReplyDeleteNifty takes support from major pivot of 5279.43. If held today, we may see a bounce back from here and today's low may likely be the low for the week.
ReplyDeleteNot able to find any as yet.
ReplyDeleteIf bears give some support, u may see 5250/38 today itself... Lets see how nifty shapes up in last 1 hour.
ReplyDeleteSeems unlikely as of now. Nifty has already travessed 4 pivots in intraday. 4 pivots move is the peak multiple times since 2008
ReplyDeleteWow! what a great pullback trade Bought Nifty futures at 5267, booked at 5292 (against trend). Trade Only based on pivots :)
ReplyDeleteSir planning to short 5500ce sep with SL 5330
ReplyDeleteNot advisable. Nifty is bound to bounce back next series amongst this pessimism.
ReplyDeleteany straddle should enter this level or wait
ReplyDeleteSept 5100 pe and 5500 ce is good but its bit risky as of now cuz Vix index in near 30 level. buy it on ur own risk..
ReplyDeleteThanks HAM ....IAM NOT ENTER.......
ReplyDeleteNifty all set to break 4th pivot.
ReplyDelete@ Ravi
ReplyDeleteAlways welcome :)
Buy strangles when vix falls..
Hi SR, What is your view for tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteSR,
ReplyDeletewhat is the low made by nifty (spot) today?
@paritosh Trend is bearish, but near strong support Don't hold any overnight positions. We can decide trade tomorrow.
ReplyDelete5,274.25
ReplyDeleteHope paritosh's reply sufficed. :)
ReplyDeleteBought Nifty around 5280 levels, selling now on advice of SR... will buy back tomorrow huh
ReplyDeleteToday there has been huge buying in Nifty at all levels. This seems to be covering of shorts by institutions before expiry.
ReplyDeleteWhat would be right levels of VIX to buy a strangle? Its alwasy around 22-25 range..
ReplyDelete@Shiv If Nifty heads back to 5361 levels tomorrow, Buy 5500CE + 5300PE sep, Targets: 5500/5220
ReplyDeleteIf Nifty heads back to 5361 levels tomorrow, Buy 5500CE + 5300PE sep, Targets: 5500/5220
ReplyDeleteIn same number of unit , right sir? {Buy 5500CE + 5300PE sep }
ReplyDeleteyes i understood this part.. but as HAm had mentioned in a post below that a 5100pe and 5500ce is risky.. just wanted to understand what makes it look risky..
ReplyDeletegOOD AFTERNOON SR SIR,
ReplyDeletewhat does this indicate? will nifty be going up from tomorrow?
Thankyou sir....have a nice evening and fun.....bye for now.....:)
ReplyDeleteThanks HAM your thought...have a nice evening....bye...takecare...:)
ReplyDeleteThank you sir...have nice evening....fun...takecare...bye...:)
ReplyDeleteSorry, was out due to work, just came on-line..
ReplyDelete@Paritosh
Thank u yaar for the quick reply :)
@Ravi
U r always welcome,
U too take care and have a nice evening too :)
@Shiv
Hello...
I replied to ur mails many times mentioning to keep in low quantity or avoid the strangles/straddles when Vix index peaks out and u r asking for the reason by keeping Vix index at high levels of 29.50....
I usually prefer buying strangles when Vix falls and sell when it rises
I bought my strangle when when IV was at 27.50 and averaged on all the dips upto 25 and finally sold today with good profit when vix peaked out near 29.80.
Hence, I would advice to watch VIX before buying strangle/straddle as the premiums will DEFINITELY fall if vix comes back to normal position below 25...
One more thing is nifty likely to test
@Shiv
ReplyDeleteNifty may test lower levels if breaks today's close, then enter a strangle cuz Vix index rises when market falls and falls when market rises, Overall calls are the victims of Vix. If u think market is gonna rise, then enter only calls with Sl according to AC or enter a ATM call with OTM put as hedging...
Prefer strangles when market is about to fall cuz, this is the time where strangles give very good returns..
Hope u got my point
Good luck :)
Have a nice evening SR and AC followers :)
ReplyDeletehv nice evening u 2.. :)
ReplyDeleteCorrection: 5500CE + 5200PE
ReplyDeleteAlways welcome. Please read as 500CE + 5200PE. Have a nice evening you too.
ReplyDeleteAlways buy strangles/straddles with similar pricing as they hedge each other till the targets are reached. Far options decay a lot.
ReplyDeleteYes, But make it 5500CE + 5200PE.
ReplyDeleteGood Evening. It may be a short term bottom, but confirmation only after a trend reversal on AC. However, if last week's low is taken out, we may enter a bearish phase for next few years.
ReplyDelete@Crafty Nifty [HAM] Have a nice evening you too. :)
ReplyDeleteLast but not least,
ReplyDeleteUSD INR to open above 67.20 or 67.40 by tomorrow.
Be cautious.....!!!
66 level is breached, next targets are 70/72
One may enter into 5000 pe and 5400 ce (strangle) by tomorrow.
Positional targets for nifty are unchanged [5250/5200],
Dream target = 5000
Sorry for typo
ReplyDeleteMake it as 5500 ce and 5100 pe
Targets for strangle are 5050 or 5450..
Bye all...... :)
Typo error ....5500CE + 5200 PE ....Ratio 1:1.....its right.....
ReplyDeleteYes sir got ur point.. i think i did not ask question right.. When vix is say @30 like the current scenario.. and i buy a strangle as mentioned why are we worried about vix comming down in that way nifty goes up and my ce price increses.. which is still getting u some profit.. and otherway is if vix increases further so will my pe's price as there is no rule for vix to be max@30 always .. or is it ?? i hope i am clear..
ReplyDeleteI'm just trying to understand on what i should not do..
ReplyDeleteWhen creating Strangles/Straddles, one needs to calculate breakevens. Say we buy 5500CE and 5200PE at a total cost of 125. So our breakevens are 5500 + 125 = 5625 and 5200 - 125 = 5075. Beyond these levels, we will be in profit whatever be the VIX. However, within the range of 5075 - 5625, our strangle may not be fruitful. However, if VIX rises, the value of the strangle rises and we may gain even within the range. In short its easier to gain in falling markets than rising markets using strangles/straddles.
ReplyDeleteYes, typing on laptop always creates typos :(
ReplyDeleteThnx SR sir.. :) that was a gem of an answer.. thnx a ton
ReplyDelete